FOOTBALL: Predictions anyone?

Here’s one prediction from The Weather Channel. Sunny for travel day on Friday, then rain (70 percent chance) for game day.

Who does the wet game favor? That’s a hard call. If your OL is physical and your backs hang on to the ball, the running team has the advantage, and I think the Rebels are deeper at tailback.

A lot will depend on who is more adept at handling the wet ball. The wet ball could affect the grip and therefore the accuracy of the normally reliable QB Riley Skinner in Wake’s up-tempo offense. It could also affect how often Houston Nutt chooses to utilize the Wild Rebel, which would really put a premium on the ball-handling skills of Dexter McCluster and Brandon Bolden, two guys that aren’t called on to handle the ball every play.

Getting away from the weather a little bit, consider this. The Rebels were very good at ball-handling in the opener, no fumbles lost and no picks. They didn’t even drop balls that they had to jump on in the backfield for a 5-yard loss.

Can they duplicate that feat? They’ll need to against a Wake defense with eight fifth-year seniors and a grad student on its 2-deep, a defense that was plus-9 in turnover margin last year. The Rebels were minus-0.83, last in the SEC, 107th in Division 1.

Here’s the guess. If the weather prediction is correct, it’s an equalizer of sorts and holds down scoring. This is a good thing for Ole Miss, which is still missing Peria Jerry and Greg Hardy. Yes, Jerry has been practicing this week, but do you risk him for just a few plays? Depends on the flow of the game. If you’re in it, and you’re facing a goalline or short-yardage situation, perhaps so. But if you rest Jerry, next week is in essence an open week. You ought to be able to rest him against Samford.

The point is Jerry and Hardy are huge losses for Ole Miss in this game. If the offense does indeed execute, and the Rebels are close, the game could turn on a sack and a fumble in the third quarter, and who’s going to produce that for Ole Miss? The Rebels had no sacks on Memphis’ 44 pass attempts. That’s no sin against the spread offense, but Ole Miss did not defense the run well and had only three tackles for loss. That indicates they weren’t winning the battles at the line.

Here you go. Ole Miss was well-prepared on offense against Memphis and is so again against Wake. The running game is effective. The wet ball slows Wake’s Skinner and Co., but Skinner is experienced and proficient and makes the plays at home.

Wake Forest 28, Ole Miss 21

Leave your scores and analysis (updated with correct spelling) below.

— PA

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34 Responses to “FOOTBALL: Predictions anyone?”

  1. john Says:

    Shene kicks a last-second field goal in the rain to win 24-21.

  2. bornarebel Says:

    They always say that you see the most improvement between games 1 and 2. I expect our defense to be a lot better this week. We have a coaching staff that actually knows how to coach and improve.
    Ole Miss wins 31-17
    Go REBS!!

  3. rebelfan38652 Says:

    I too see the D stepping up on both teams. Not a big aerial attack by either team. I am thinking Shene in the end lifts us to a 17 to 14 win.

  4. Raleighrebel Says:

    Ole Miss 13
    Wake Forest 6

    MS State 20
    SE Louisiana 21

  5. AGRReb Says:

    I think we score some points, simply because we have the athletes to do it. I think our athletes incorporated into Nutt and Austin’s schemes proves too much for Wake. Oh and did I mention we get our first defensive touchdown this week and Jerry makes an impact with 2 TFLs….. D= 1 TD, O = 3 TDs and 3 FGs

    Ole Miss: 37
    Wake Forest: 30

  6. paul kelly Says:

    i need some of whatever you guys are smoking. i would not risk jerry in this game no matter what happens. it is more important to have him when the sec schedule starts. if it is raining i too see a low scoring game. and i think this favors the rebels. but win or loose i see a close game and a lot of improvement in every way over the last several years.

  7. jr85reb Says:

    I would not risk Jerry in this game either. I see it as a low scoring hard fought game that will give the Rebels credibility against a ranked team. Penalities and mistakes will be the difference.

    Wake 17
    Rebels 16

  8. m4rebs Says:

    Decs are just too experienced in all facities of the game. You mention their experience, but throw in their GPA’s and you have a pretty smart bunch of guys that are going to be in the right place at the right time. Their offense, though relies on the passing attack, has shown that they can win with less than 10 pass attempts in a wet environment on the road in the SEC, granted it was in Oxford in 2006, but hey, are we that much improved on D? I think Patrick Willis was on the field then, and we have no Patrick Willis roaming the MLB position anymore. I’d love to see us go in their and take what we’ve needed to take for a long time, but history is not on our side…..
    Deacs 27
    Rebs 13

  9. Jay Stokes Says:

    i agree with paul and jr8 above….i think it’s dumb to “get a few snaps” out of jerry prematurely. i would leave him out until we play vandy. then possibly we could have jerry AND hardy back.

    as for wake….i haven’t seen them play, but preseason rankings mean absolutely nothing. one glaring example of that — clemson. i don’t see any reason why ole miss can’t beat wake, but road games are tough. also, i don’t think rain will drop the scoring below 20 points per team. IF the rebs execute, i look for them to surprise everybody on saturday. wake keeps it close until the 4th quarter when the rebel running game takes over.

    Ole Miss: 31
    Wake Forest: 21

  10. m4rebs Says:

    My, my, don’t we have short-term memories here….I believe Mr. O was 3 and 0 against Memphis (probably because the fence he built around it). Either way you spin it, the level of competition is going to go up tremendously from week to week. Remember Columbia, MO??? Remember Lairimie, WY??? Remember Lubbock, TX??? That is my history point, and if you boil it down, we just don’t perform well on the road. We still have the same nucleus of players that don’t “KNOW HOW TO WIN.” Right? I think Eli said it best, “They just need to win a few SEC games to get some confidence back.” I think we can win some SEC games, but I don’t think we will be very successful on the road………yet. Too early for the “Alabama” outlook.

  11. AGRReb Says:

    One MAJOR difference between that 06 team and this years team. We now have ourselves a Coach!!! And I seriously doubt Coach Nutt will conduct an 1-1/2 hour scrimmage BEFORE the game during any a rain delay if we have one. Unbelievable how stupid O was, scrimmage before a game????? You gotta be kidding, but it happened.

  12. djrebel Says:

    Matt, you’re kind of early on these posts right now. I hope you didn’t skip lunch. Tell us a little about the “Alabama outlook.” I imagine folks are pretty upbeat in your part of the world.

    — PA

  13. VA Reb Says:

    Ole Miss winning 38-20 over Wake.

    Snead hits his stride; all five running backs hit the holes; offensive line plays great; defense steps up and hurries Skinner just enough.

  14. cr Says:

    Wind eliminates passing game allowing safeties to become more involved stopping the run. Fumbles become the key and Wake had 4 versus Baylor. They also averaged only 3.5 yards per rush attempt, Rebs averaged 4.7 behind a more experienced o-line.

    Rebs 14 Deacons 7

  15. Jimmy Barbee Says:

    Raleighrebel Says:
    September 4, 2008 at 10:54 am
    Ole Miss 13
    Wake Forest 6
    MS State 20
    SE Louisiana 21

    cr says:
    Rebs 14 Deacons 7

    Are you two holding something back from us?

    Both team have a great air force.

    Raleigh: If you are correct about MSU. Coach Croom will probably be burnt at the stake next week by some of those disgruntled dawg fans who don’t appreciate what a good coach that he is.

  16. Raleighrebel Says:

    JB,

    Just my best guess for the Ole Miss vs Wake Forest game, if the weather is as bad as they are predicting. If so, i’m thinking there won’t be much passing or scoring, and Ole Miss will prevail with their run game, and both teams will miss some extra points.

    As far as MSU goes, just a cheap shot (all in good fun) at all my buddies that went to State.

    Looking forward to watching the Rebels play in person. GO REBELS!!!

  17. Raleighrebel Says:

    Also, my uncle and his family had something come up and will not be able to attend the game. If any of you know of anyone coming up here that needs tickets, I’ve got 4 extras in the Ole Miss section.

  18. Jimmy Barbee Says:

    Raleigh,

    Hoping that storm will track more easterly and miss the US.

    A very good point that you make here about the weather conditons. The Rebs do have a good running attack (so far). Coach Nutt got that balance offense attack going. I talked to an Oxford relative today that worked at Ole Miss (Athletic Dept) for thirty five year. An Old Coach, his friend, said that the Rebels are good and competitive. The selection by Ole Miss of Coach Nutt was a great one.

    I guessed that the State thing was just a joke.

    I say too: GO REBELS!!!!!!

  19. tcfan Says:

    I’ll be the only one that shouts SHOOTOUT.

    Ole Miss 34
    Wake 31.

  20. Chad Says:

    Wake Forest 51
    Ole Miss 35

  21. flareb Says:

    Chad,
    I missed your State prediction………….

  22. flareb Says:

    From the head coach on down, this team is making strides in the right direction. Nutt will keep them in it but I think Wake is the deal and the team to beat in the ACC. What Grobe has done in Winston Salem is simply amazing. My heart is Rebs all the way all the time but…………
    Wake 23
    Rebs 20

  23. oxfordrebel Says:

    I wanna say we win, but I just don’t see it happening. Hurricane or not, the fact is that we are playing a very good team on the road and that has not been our specialty as of late as Matt pointed out. I think we do make a game of it, but too much Skinner.

    Hurricane score
    WF-30
    UM-21

    Non-hurricane score
    WF-44
    UM-33

    State wins big
    MSU-28
    SE LA-6

  24. Chad Says:

    State is 0-2 agains LA teams after this week.
    SE LA 13
    MSU 7

  25. PBeez Says:

    PA – what are folks saying over here? Heck, didn’t you know that Alabama won the national championship this last weekend? They are all punch drunk stupid crazy. Its funny – and sooooo annoying. Please everyone, say a prayer this weekend that Bama suffers a terrific and total mid-season collapse. I can’t take them, and its only week #2.

    Decs & Rebs: After growing up in NC, I just can’t get my mind around the idea that Wake is the team to beat in the ACC, but it sure as heck looks like it. The Rebs are a team on the rise (I hope & pray) Wake is a team that is already there. I like we loose a close one, 21-17.

    Enjoy their fight song, its one of my favorites!

  26. Jimmy Barbee Says:

    PBeez Says:

    “Please everyone, say a prayer this weekend that Bama suffers a terrific and total mid-season collapse.”

    PBeez don’t know which one them gods you are praying to, but The GOD that I pray to also see those Christian Bama players the same as He does other Christian players regardless which football team they are playing for.

  27. PBeez Says:

    That doesn’t mean our Father/Mother God doesn’t recognize these poor souls made a serous mistake by going to Bama. They will, however, receive forgiveness.

  28. PBeez Says:

    Let me make this clear Jimmy. All kidding aside, your intemperate insinuation that I am a pagan , with out as you yourself say, knowing anything about me both insulting and unchristian.
    I am frankly not impress by those who wear their faith on their sleeve. It is those that boast the most that are the most insecure.
    But whatever. This is a sportsboard, and my believes, and the depth of my faith is my business. Kindly keep out of it.
    Go Rebs.

  29. Jimmy Barbee Says:

    ……Father/Mother God…… pagan. could be.

    Furthermore, I will witness for My Lord and Saviour, Jesus Christ, regardless of what the world has to say about it.

  30. BirdZ! Says:

    JB, we are bound by obedience to the Scripture to profess our faith in Jesus Christ.

    Back to football, I think it will be a high scoring game between Ole Miss and Wake.

    Ole Miss 41
    Wake 38

    MSU 38
    SE LA 14

  31. pBeez Says:

    Nice thing about having a discussion with intolerant fundamentalists is that its never a discussion. Its pointless. I’ll sacrifice a donkey tonight on the alter of smug self-righteousness for you brother.

  32. BirdZ! Says:

    pBeez, I can’t speak for JB, but I’m not intolerant. I’ll be glad to hear what you have to say. I am a Christian, and I beleive every word of the Bible. I truly believe that Christianity is the only way to heaven.

    I’ll leave it at that here on PA’s blog, but feel free to leave me a comment on my blog, if you would like.

  33. pBeez Says:

    BirdZ, I am always interested to discuss faith and belief, my own and others. I find it fascinated to look at the various Christian faith traditions, and enjoy seeing how they developed – its the historian in me.

    As to the little spat between myself and JB – I was only responding to his comments on my statement that I hope and pray that all these Bama fans who have drunk the kool-aid get the rug pulled out from them. After one week, they are insufferable. But I’ve got no interest in hijacking PA’s blog. I am just here for the football. I promise, this is my last post on it.

  34. m4rebs Says:

    PA, sorry it took so long to respond. The Bamers are going crazy over here. They are excited, but, some are cautious. They realize the ACC may not be all that the hype was about. There’s alot of excitment in Tuscaloosa, but there is probably that or equal excitement in South Nashville. They just on the cover of SI like the Media Darling, Crimson Tide.

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