FOOTBALL: Predictions Anyone?

Greetings all.

This is late getting up with it being a basketball and travel day and whatnot.

But there is football to be played in Fayetteville Saturday night, and it’s a pretty important game for the Rebels.

Bowl hopes do not vanish if Ole Miss loses this game, but they further unravel.

Having lost four games by a total of 19 points, the Rebels have proven they can play with anyone on their schedule. They’ve not proven they can consistently close games against with which they’re considered a closer match – like Vanderbilt and South Carolina. Those close home losses may turn out to be haunting in the end if this Arkansas game slips through.

Statistically and talent-wise, Ole Miss is the better team here. But if the better team fumbles, stumbles and throws picks it can lose to a Razorbacks team that has shown improvement the last two weeks.

That Bobby Petrino passing offense really hasn’t taken off yet, but Houston Nutt left Petrino with Michael Smith, the SEC’s top rusher at 131.8 yards a game. Smith had a concussion in last week’s 21-20 loss at Kentucky. He missed a lot of practice this week but is expected to play. It doesn’t sound like he’ll carry 35 times – as he’s done in each of the last two games – but you never know.

Stopping the run is Ole Miss’ strong suit, and the Rebels will need to hone in on Smith or whoever runs in his place.

They also need pressure up front. Casey Dick isn’t an elite quarterback, but neither was South Carolina’s Chris Smelley. The Rebels didn’t get pressure on Smelley, and he picked a part the secondary with 330-some odd yards in a career outing. I don’t think he’s been heard from since, at least not much.

The Razorbacks are averaging 225.7 passing yards a game, third in the SEC. Dick has thrown six touchdown passes, but four of those came in the first two weeks against Western Illinois and La.-Monroe.

This isn’t a great offense, but it was good enough to put up 25 points at Auburn and get the first SEC win for the Razorbacks, which equals the number of SEC wins for Ole Miss at this point.

There have been murmurs that Nutt might change up the Wild Rebel some this week, but he and offensive coordinator Kent Austin have been adamant that Dexter McCluster will play through his fumbles and interceptions.

I’m going to say McCluster plays, but his touches are fewer. The Rebels play physical on both lines. They get the ground game going and limit the Hogs in Nutt’s return to his home state.

Maybe that will be the case, because in the quest for six wins and bowl eligibility this is a big one.

— PA

Ole Miss 25, Arkansas 19